Soure: ABC News
There's only one thing that is certain this morning - I suck at making predictions. My Wednesday night prediction that the ALP would win 80/81 seats has proven to be extremely optimistic, given that right now they have barely scraped over the line with 70 confirmed seats (with at least another 2 almost certainly going to them as well). At least I did get one thing right, and that was the Greens would win the Seat of Melbourne, so well done to Adam Bandt and his team for grabbing the Green's first ever House of Reps seat.
The fact is, quite simply, that Election 2010 has not gone the way I personally wanted it to go, nor has it gone the way either of the major parties probably wanted it to go. Neither has a mandate to govern, and in fact we're looking at a hung parliament, and won't even know who the next PM is until next weekend most likely. Whoever does end up taking up the challenge will find things quite interesting, and my gut instinct tells me that the next Government will probably only last 12-18 months before we all find ourselves going to the polls once again.
Now, there are likely to be far too many post-mortems being conducted on this election right now (my advice is to look at what Crikey is reporting to get the best analysis and coverage), and I am not enough for a political expert to offer anything other than an opinion that is in some way well-informed. But I would like to take this opportunity to list the things I like about last night's result, and the things that I don't like / am slightly worried about. So let's get into it, eh?
Things I Do Like
Australia Rejects Both Major Parties
After writing about how uninspiring the campaigns of both major parties were this year, I guess I shouldn't be at all surprised that the result has come down to what looks like a hung parliament. If nothing else of worth comes from this election, I hope it forces both parties (in particular the ALP) to actually sit down and have a proper think about what they want to do with this country should they get a chance to govern. The lack of visionary policy and clear positive ideas for Australia's future were thin on the ground this year, and I think this is what has had the biggest impact on voter sentiment. The fact that we've had the largest number of infomal votes for quite some time reinforces the notion of an electorate that is disengaged with politics. We want our politicians to make decisions that benefit the nation, not run around and be driven by opinion poills and appeasing lobby groups. The RSPT, for example, was a visionary policy that was watered down and cost a sitting PM his job, all because the ALP couldn't sell the policy and convince the general population of its worth. The ALP backdown on climate change policy was a sad move, although given how much of a dog the CPRS was, in some ways we were lucky they did it. But examples like this have only shown to the voters that if the sitting Government doesn't want to take a chance and lead, why should they get our vote?
The fact is, we're almost certainly looking at another Federal election in 2011, so the ALP have about a year to get their cards in order for another crack at the polls. If they can get themselves back on track, there's no reason why they cannot romp it home next week. Like they would have 9 months ago, when we were looking at a 100-seat representation by the ALP. Oh my, how times have changed. Which leads me quite nicely to...
The Greens Primary Vote Increase
If there's one thing we can say for sure about this election is that, and this is despite anything that Tony Abbott might say this weekend, last night belonged to the Greens. They not only managed to greatly increase their primary vote (by nearly 4%), and look to have the balance of power in the Senate come July 1, but they also nabbed their first ever seat in the House of Representatives. The fact is, this all came about because the ALP bled their primary vote to the left, and the Greens were there ready to collect up 2/3 of said bleed. By contrast, the Coalition only managed to grab less than 2% of the ALP's primary vote, so they can hardly be running around today saying that the ALP was rejected in favour of them, because the ALP was rejected in favour of the Greens. So it would seem to idea of moving to the right on several key issues, such as the environment and asylum seekers, has done the ALP primary vote no good whatsoever. But well done to Bob Brown and his team. The next 6 years should prove to be quite interesting.
Australian Democracy Works
Say what you will about voter disengagement, but if there's one thing we should be thankful for, it's the fact we live in a lucky country where we do have a proper chance to exercise a basic democratic right. A lot of countries don't get this same chance, and we are so much the better for it. Which is why it is a shame the major parties don't take things as seriously as they should. As well as this, the AEC once again have proven themselves to be a competent executor of these processes, so we should all be very thankful that things went as smoothly as they did this weekend.
Kevin Rudd Won His Seat
Good on ya, Kevin from Queensland. Now if the ALP do go into Opposition this week, how about you challenge Julia for the leadership?
Wyatt Roy Won His Seat
We now have a 20 year old in Parliament. Not sure why, since you'd assume you'd want MPs with some life experience, but if nothing else it'll prove good fodder for young 'un jokes. And it was nice to see his Mum let him stay up late last night to watch the results. But that's gonna make him tired and grumpy today. Hope he can finish his homework OK...
Steve Fielding Gets The Boot
This one kinda wrote itself, really. Not much to say here, other than I am pleased Steve Fielding's days in the Senate are numbered. The ALP helping him get into the Senate in the first place was a bad idea, and I am glad that this course has been corrected. I for one will not be sad to see him leave. Although I am sad that it might signal the end of @FakeFielding on Twitter. I sure hope not.
Things I Don't Like
Tony Abbott Could Be Our Next PM
There's a very big chance that Tony "The Mad Monk" Abbott could be our next PM. Now, this isn't meant to be a slur against him per se, or the Coalition, but I have a basic issue against any party (or person) getting to lead our nation when their campaign for election was based on a negative premise - vote for us because we're not the other guys, and the other guys are crap. At no stage did Tony Abbott manage to articulate a positive vision for Australia's future, and his core arguments about debt levels, wasteful spending (particularly around the BER), and asylum seekers, were mostly based on false statements that did not bare any level of scrutiny. But the sad part is that clearly a large number of people in Australia voted for him based on these lies. But then this has as much to do with my next point, so let's move on to...
The ALP Failed To Sell Their Achievements
Australia survived going into recession. We are the economic envy of much of the world. Our stimulus package kept unemployment levels down, and gave some great new facilities to thousands of schools across the nation. There are plans afoot to build the National Broadband Network, which will revolutionise Australian society. Work has started on reforming Indigenous Australian policy. All of this and a lot more happened in the last 3 years, but could the ALP seemingly manage to sell much of this to the electorate? Clearly not, since they took a pummeling in the polls. If they had of sold this a bit better, maybe the people of Australia would not have listened so intently to The Coalition's claims. Still, what's done is done, which is why the next one is even sadder...
Dumping Kevin Rudd Was A Bad, Bad Move
This was an easy one to call back in June. Dumping a sitting PM was never going to be a good idea, and after looking at the swings in QLD it's clear that it didn't help. Not only that, but the ALP didn't pick up an equivalent swing in Victoria to make up for their losses in QLD. It's hard to say if keeping Kevin Rudd on would have made any big difference in the final numbers, but let's be honest - it couldn't have been much worse, and even though it wasn't the only factor at play in QLD, it was clearly a decent chunk of why the ALP recorded the swing that they did. Besides which, it was never Kevin Rudd that was the problem. It was the message, stupid - the lack of clarity was what was killing the Government, and changing to Gillard didn't help here. All it meant was it robbed the ALP of the advantages of incumbancy, and a clear ability to pitch their message on their record.
NSW and QLD Labor Didn't Help Matters
The NSW and QLD State Labor Governments are quite clearly on the nose right now in those two states, and it would appear that given the Federal ALP has been looking more and more like a clone of those two State Governments as 2010 has rolled on, it was clear voters were going to start thinking of rejecting the Federal ALP in much the same way they clearly plan to do so at the next State elections. The NSW ALP Government should have gone at the last election, and hopefully will go at the next one. So too should the QLD ALP get a chance to go into Opposition for a term or two, and recharge and refocus. Being in power for too long is never a good thing, and so with the NSW State elections looming in several months time, it might just be that if we do go to a Federal poll again in 2011, the lack of a NSW State Labor Government could help here. But it was a bit of a shame that voters didn't chose to distinguish between State and Federal issues, but hey - who says they have to?
And last, but surely not least, we have the biggest negative of the entire result...
Wilson Tuckey Is Out
I love Wilson. Whenever he opened his mouth, he would always say the wrong thing, but always be entertaining. He will be missed. Farewell, you fat so and so...
Well, that's it. For now. There's probably going to be a lot more to say over the coming days about the 2010 Election, but the above seems to me to be a good starting point. There's probably a point or two I've missed, but right now I am too tired to think more...